Every time a new technology is introduced that increases productivity people are told that it will allow for more free time and shorter workdays. But that has not been the case. Instead, what happens is that the baseline expectation goes up. There isn’t less work or more free time. It is no different this time around with AI. When I say “AI”, I am specifically talking about generative AI like LLMs.
Sam Altman of OpenAI said “Expectations will go up, but capabilities will go up equally quickly, and we’ll all get better stuff.” The “better stuff” has yet to arrive for the average person.
In 1930, John Maynard Keynes published “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren” where he claims that we’ll have 15-hour work weeks by 2030. We are in 2026. I doubt we’ll get 15-hour work weeks in 2030. More recently, Bill Gates said a 3-day work week could be possible thanks to AI. This is the kind of dream we’re sold when a new technology arrives. It’s been happening for decades.
Meanwhile, you have executives like Marc Benioff of Salesforce laying people off due to AI productivity gains. Benioff cut 4,000 customer service jobs due to AI and said “I need less heads”. The people that stayed still have the typical 40-hour work weeks. No additional free time was gained by employees (unless you count being unemployed as free time). The savings went straight to the shareholders in a $20 billion increase to Salesforce’s share repurchase program.
My current job is similar to the kinds of jobs Benioff cut. I provide technical customer support. Even though the number of customers continues to increase along with my workload, I’m expected to account for that with AI. I resolve more tickets than before, but I didn’t get any time back and I certainly did not get additional compensation.
A 2024 study by Upwork revealed that 96% of executives expect AI to boost productivity, 77% of employees using AI say it added to their workload, and 21% say they were asked to do more work as a direct result of it.
Okay fine, maybe we don’t get shorter work weeks. Maybe we won’t get less work. But since we’re delivering more value, surely our compensation is keeping up with productivity gains, right? Nah, wages have not kept up with productivity for a very long time despite periods of technological innovation.
I know it’s early for AI, but I don’t think things will get better for the average worker based on how history has played out: a new technology is introduced that increases productivity, which makes the baseline expectation for employees go up, which means each employee is outputting more value than before, and that value mainly goes to the people at the top. Rinse and repeat for every technological innovation.
I am not necessarily anti-AI. I regularly use AI at work to get things done and help customers. I’ve used AI to create something of value that I use myself in this very blog, and I wrote about it too. I have accelerated my learning of new topics. But at work, increased productivity with AI benefits the company more than anything else.
At the end of the day, the stock needs to go up. Shorter work days will not make it go up. Increased output in the same amount of time will.
